http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/01/20/ekos-poll020.html
All the Liberals have to do is NOT screw up at this point. That was the biggest fastest slide the Conservatives have seen since... well, ever. Now, we all must realize of course that asking the Liberals to not screw up may be a bit of a tall order.
The key points I think to take from all this are who is turning from the Cons though. Educated people, younger people, and Ontarians. These are the same people who decided to "give them a chance" last election, and people clustered in areas that are not Conservative strongholds. A loss of support in Ontario for Conservatives could spell a very large loss of seats, especially in light of the damage they have already done to themselves in Quebec.
Also, the young and the educated are people who don't forget quite so quickly. Seems to me that we're seeing another lesser of two evils judgement. They don't like the Liberals, but they like the authoritarian aspects of what the Cons are doing a good deal less.
you dreamer
All the Liberals have to do is NOT screw up at this point.
Seems a rather tall order!
Another election of them being the most wishy-washy, middle of the road, aw-shucks, better-than-the-other guy party.
Yippee.
:)
As for a spring election, partly I guess it depends on whether they want to try for a majority (unlikely) or try and get a minority themselves. They seem pretty content so far to lay back and let Stevie annoy the piss out of the world.
seems so
Yeah... Ignatieff has said as much himself too. I think there's danger in that though. Wait too long and it will just make them look gutless.
It's kind of ironic isn't it. The Liberals, the so-called middle-of-the-road party, seem to have serious issues finding that middle-of-the-road sort of wording that lies between saying nothing at all and saying too much of something such that they soon after have to remove their foot from their mouth.
heehee
if you do one thing and the other an equal number of times, you still manage to hit the middle twice as much as either.
twice
Twice the incidences of foot-in-mouth disease!
latest poll
Here's the latest article and poll results:
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/02/03/ekos-poll.html
Statistically, we're still talking tied, but with the Liberals now in the lead, it does fit the overall trend. But then there's this story...
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/02/04/ott-prorogue-breaks-100204.html
There's some plotting going on here. The Cons are obviously trying to simultaneously regain some face and also goad the Liberals into a misstep - really anything at all that they can spin. How will the Liberals play this...
I believe the libs have
I believe the libs have actually taken the lead now, right?
tie
It's pretty much a statistical tie. They were ahead by .9% last week and now behind 1%, but error in both polls was ~2% or something.
I predict ...
1. It may or may not be true that one party or another will get more seats than the others and form the next government.
2. It may or may not be true that this party will actually get the majority of votes (popular vote).
3. It may or may not be true that any of the persons elected will actually represent the people in their riding when it comes to major decisions.
4, It may or may not be true that any of the persons elected will actually give a damn about any of the promises they made during the campaign or even understand their own party's position on any of a number of topics.
5. It may or may not be true that the persons who end up in positions of power within the next government will actually be interested in anything other that being in said position of power.
6. It may or may not be true that the next Prime Minister will allow any of the persons mentioned in point 5 to actually serve more than 6 months or after the first public gaff that embarrasses the Prime Minister.
7. It may or may not be true that any of the voting Canadian public will actually remember any of the deeds of our elected officials when they next run for public office.
8. It may or may not be true that majority of the voting public will vote or even give a tinker's damn about who is elected or when the election even is so long as it doesn't affect hockey or football playoffs.
9. It may or may not be true that there will be a vocal minority of persons who will complain about the next party in power, regardless of how or even if they voted.
10. It may or may not be true that the next governing party will take credit for everything that happens that puts them in a good light.
11. It may or may not be true that the next governing party will blame the previous government and the opposition party for everything that goes wrong regardless of who or what is actually at fault.